Watching for weakness , buying correction..



Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by UK Construction PMI figures. Broadly speaking, UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past two months, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may help encourage a recovery from the British Pound after the currency broadly slumped on Friday. That move may have reflected flows linked to portfolio adjustment for “Brexit” referendum risk at the start of the new fiscal year and the new quarter.



Current price – 1.42113

Support – 1.38240

Possible upside movement after the UK PMI positive data and the Friday selloff.

As we are looking at the chart above, there is a possible idea for buying the correction,if breaks the line of support , we can consider that as invalidation and the down-movement will continue.




The Japanese Yen finished the week higher versus the fast-falling US Dollar, but key disappointments in domestic economic data and Nikkei 225 losses kept the JPY lower against other major FX counterparts.


Current price – 111.568

Support line –  110.093 

Historically we have seen the Yen strengthen (USD/JPY weaken) on domestic equity market sell-offs. And yet this time is different for a key reason—both the Yen and the Nikkei stand to lose if the domestic economy continues to under-perform. A sell-off in Japanese stocks into the fiscal year-end (March 31) left the Nikkei in negative territory for fiscal year 2015—the first such annual loss in three years.Thus we may continue to see capital flow out of Japan which itself will keep pressure on the JPY exchange rate. The USD/JPY in particular seems likely to test near-term lows, but that is just as easily a function of US Dollar weakness instead of Yen strength. It would take a fairly significant shift in Bank of Japan policy to improve outlook for the domestic currency.




As noted previously, “the 200 day average break in USD/CHF negates any upside potential for now but the trend-line that extends off of the May, June, and August 2015 highs is just below and could offer interim support. The next big support may not be until near .9400 (longer term trend-line). The contracting nature of the decline since November indicates potential for a wedge to form.” An 8 month trend-line was broken on (3/31).



Current price – 0.96068

Support line – around  0.9400




Another modest print may prove to be better for risk assets (higher yielding currencies, equities, and corporate debt) than the US Dollar: signs that the US economy is still chugging along (albeit at a slower pace than desired – at least its not tilting into a recession quicker) means the Fed will be more patient, keeping the low rate happy hour going for just a bit longer.

After Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Wednesday, it seems that markets are intoxicated with the notion that the Fed will keep rates on hold for much of 2016

– Around the NFP’S – Euro , Yen are likely to move in same direction.

-Retail crowd continuous to fade recent US dollar selloff.

-As market volatility rises – good  time to review risk management principles. 



Current price 1.13716 





J.Mason ♦