Alianza, Multinational-free trade area..

    Today’s article is more a geopolitical than financial, which some trader’s and  investor’s will found boring, but let’s agree on one point that the political situation now in the Union is the generator of the financial change’s and turmoil  in the stock markets in globally point of  view.. 



European Union leaders will gather in the city straddling the “Danube River” in September, after a summer of “political reflection,” to hammer out a way forward for the bloc in the shock of the post-Brexit world. Soon to be shorn of the bloc’s second-largest economy and buffeted by a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment from Paris to Warsaw, the 27 national leaders will meet knowing that Britain’s vote to leave forces them to weigh change to win back citizens’ support. They just can’t agree on what that should look like. The dividing lines have been between different actors on different issues — north and south on financial and economic issues, east and west on asylum and migration.  It affects a market of 500 million people with an economy of some $15 trillion, including the U.K. With elections next year in the Netherlands, France and then Germany, economies together representing more than half the euro-zone output, leaders don’t have the luxury of time on their side. Markets are also showing signs of unease. 


While the European Central Bank’s unlimited bond purchases are keeping a lid on spreads for now, bank shares have plunged amid concerns about the EU’s ability to contain a new crisis emanating from Italy.

It’s “a highly volatile macro environment..  All you need is one additional shock — and we’ve got three or four lined up: French elections, the Italian senate referendum — and you could have a very serious situation on your hands.

 The U.K.’s vote to split from the bloc it joined 43 years ago looks like the moment that dilemma will be confronted. After Bratislava – itself a national capital only since the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in the 1990’s – leaders will announce action probably in March in Italy, where they’ll convene to mark 60 years since six nations signed the bloc’s founding Treaty of Rome. In the interim, they’ll face a referendum on refugee quotas in Hungary and a rerun of the Austrian presidential election that will pit far-right populists against a pro-EU candidate.

-The long game 

We are writing historical moment’s at this present point that will change everything . . 

For the generation that didn’t witness wars ripping the continent to shreds, it’s more difficult to see the EU’s relevance than it was for their forefathers. What 60 years ago was essentially a peace project has become the world’s largest free-trade area, a multinational club with shared standards in areas as diverse as food hygiene, corporate mergers and financial services and, increasingly, a player with ambitions in security and defense that extend far beyond its borders. Some say it’s evolved too far, others that it needs to keep growing. 

   -Yet differences within governments as well as between them mean the chances of a grand project to bind the EU together are slim. Simply defending signature EU achievements such as the euro, open borders and freedom of movement would represent a success, I don’t think that we have the political energy and willingness at this present point in time to make huge progress.  

according to Janis Emmanouilidis, director of studies at the European Policy Center in Brussels.



And for the people who think or try to predict if the European union will flow into recession we have to say that this is unlikely to happened , Brexit will not drive the Alianz into recession.  While the uncertainty surrounding the details and timing of Brexit will likely constrain business investment in the euro-zone in the coming years, the economic hit likely won’t be severe enough to drive it into a recession.

HSBC lowered its growth forecast for 2017 to 1% from 1.5% after the vote, but kept its forecast for 2016 unchanged. Meanwhile, they expect the hit to the U.K.’s economy to be much larger. A side-by-side comparison can be seen in the chart below.






J.Mason ♦