September: Things are about to get busy . .


  And so, here we are at the first day from September, summer vibes fading away and it’s time for busy and long working days , as well in the stock market things are about to get pretty fast busy and remarkable ..  One article that I have red from this morning express exactly how I feel about the current bull-market environment  that we have . .  

“I think this is going to be the longest bull market in history and, arguably, the most joyless,” the founder and chief executive of Camas, Wash.-based Fisher Investments. The bull market in stocks may be aging, but likely has much more time to run—just don’t look for investors to jump for joy about it..”

-said billionaire investor Ken Fisher. 

That lack of mirth and the bull’s longevity go hand in hand. Fisher is fond of citing legendary investor John Templeton’s maxim that bull markets are “born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”  

Euphoria remains in short supply, with investors moving from one worry to another. China and Brexit had investors bracing for the worst earlier in the year. Indeed, pessimism—the view that stocks will fall over the next six months—rose to a two-month high of 33.4% in the most recent AAII Sentiment Survey, while bullish sentiment was at 29.4%, and has hovered below the historical average of 38.5% for most of the past year and a half. It is important to acknowledge what stage the cycle is in. In the early portion of a bull market, companies with thin gross operating profit margins usually outperform, in part because they take the biggest hit in a downturn and are poised to bounce back hard. After a few years, however, the advantage shifts to firms with fat gross operating profit margins. Such firms are able to use their fatter margins to take market share away from firms with thinner margins.


The first major headline event to kick off the month’s festivities is August’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to be released on Friday. A strong number would potentially set the scene for a Federal Reserve rate hike when officials next meet on September 21. Investors have been repricing the odds of an increase in interest rates upwards in the run-up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s comment that Yellen’s remarks were consistent with the possibility of two rate hikes in 2016, though the implied probability of a hike in September has eased in recent sessions. 

This argument may be put to rest on Friday, as job growth in August has come in below analysts’ expectations for five consecutive years. Incoming central bank decisions will drive global markets in September, given the potential for a rate hike from the Fed and the impact of large asset-purchasing schemes in the U.K., Japan, and the euro area, for foreign exchange and credit markets, in particular.  The next Bank of England meeting is on September 15 — analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, only see a 6.3% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and attention will focus on the implementation challenges of the monetary authority’s bond-purchase scheme after a challenging start for the program.  Although analysts don’t foresee a coordinated plan at the G20 level for a large fiscal stimulus plan, markets will be keenly focused on the extent to which policy makers talk up the growth-boosting efficacy of fiscal policy, in general, a development that could reshape trading investments over financial assets, particularly high-grade bonds.  Searching, at this point, for the next big thing runs the risk of missing out on bull-market returns and not being able to make them back up . . 




J. Mason ♦